Bottle index

Definition

Flaskeindekset is a reference index that measures the change in the average price for a curated selection of rare whisky bottles over time. The index is based on realized transaction prices in the secondary market and provides a comparable indicator of price development rather than individual sales.

Formål

Flaskeindekset is used as a market reference for collectors, investors and media. It helps identify general price trends, compare bottle types and assess market sentiment for rare editions.

Datagrundlag

Data are collected from: - Auctions (live and online) and fixed catalog transactions - Specialty retailers and online marketplaces - Private sales, when transaction documentation is available and verified Data are cleaned and standardized: primarily realized prices, volume and provenance are checked; obsolete transactions without unambiguous identification or with missing verification are excluded.

Beregning og konstruktion

For each period t, price relatives are calculated for bottles in the index list: r_i,t = P_i,t / P_i,t-1 Where P_i,t is the realized price for bottle i in period t. The bottles' weights w_i are fixed at the outset and reflect the bottle selections' market leadership and volume (e.g., turnover or number of registered transactions). The overall index relative i_t is calculated as a weighted average: i_t = Σ_i w_i * r_i,t The index is updated as: I_t = I_{t-1} * i_t Base year and base value: I_0 = 100, often set to 100 at a fixed reference year (e.g., 2010-01). For robustness, outliers are handled through trimming or robust statistics.

Praktiske anvendelser

• Track price development for rare bottles over time
• Compare market-leading bottles and editions
• Support investment and collecting decisions
• Prepare market reports and journalistic analyses

Eksempel

Assume base I_0 = 100 for period t = 0. Bottle A: price in period t-1 = 2000, price in period t = 2400 (r_A,t = 1.20), weight w_A = 0.6 Bottle B: price in period t-1 = 1200, price in period t = 1260 (r_B,t = 1.05), weight w_B = 0.4 Total i_t = 0.61.20 + 0.41.05 = 0.72 + 0.42 = 1.14 I_t = I_{t-1} * i_t = 100 * 1.14 = 114 This illustrates a price increase of 14% in the period.

Begrænsninger

• The market for rare bottles is illiquid and volatile; the index is sensitive to a few large transactions.
• Data selection and provenance can influence the result; discrepancies in registrations require strict quality control.
• New editions, changed packaging or changes in retailer practices can lead to temporary fluctuations in the index.

Se også

• Whisky Price Index
• Auction figures and price development
• Collector and investment analysis in spirits